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02/11/2012 - Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Celtic continued its stunning run of form Saturday, defeating Inverness, 1-0, at Parkhead to extend its winning streak in Scottish Premier League play to 13 games.
The Bhoys have not dropped points in Scotland's top flight since Oct. 29 when it was held to a 0-0 draw with Hibernian, and it hasn't lost a league match since Oct. 2 when it fell 2-0 to Hearts.
Neil Lennon's men have been on a roll since, winning 13 successive contests to overtake Rangers at the top of the table.
With Rangers also taking three points on Saturday after a 4-1 defeat of Dunfermline, the Premier League table remains unchanged with Celtic leading its fierce rival by four points.
Celtic needed only one goal to dispatch Inverness, and Joe Ledley provided that lone strike in the 16th minute.
The goal was slightly overshadowed by red cards issued to players on both squads, as Celtic's Daniel Majstorovic was sent off in the 60th minute before Steve Williams of Inverness picked up his second yellow card in the 78th minute.
But all that mattered for the home side at the end of the day was three points, which they earned through Ledley's early strike.
Celtic's 21st win of the season gives the club 65 points on the season, while Inverness remains third from bottom on just 26 points.
Rangers 4, Dunfermline 1
Dunfermline, Scotland - Rangers surrendered an early lead at Dunfermline on Saturday but battled back to claim a resounding 4-1 victory at East End Park.
Andy Kirk opened the scoring to shock the visitors in the 16th minute. Rangers responded quickly with goals in the 24th and 39th minutes from David Healy and Lee McCulloch respectively.
Rangers extended the lead and secured the victory in second-half play with goals from Sone Aluko and Salim Kerkar.
The Gers keep pace with league-leaders Celtic, sitting four points of the pace with 61 points on the season. Dunfermline remains in the cellar of Scotland's top tier with 18 points.
Dundee United 5, St. Johnstone 1
Perth, Scotland - Dundee United handed St. Johnstone its second-straight league defeat in stunning fashion, trouncing the fifth-place club, 5-1, at McDiarmid Park on Saturday.
A pair of own goals gifted the visitors the lead as Steven Anderson conceded the opener in the 35th minute before Callum Davidson gave away another in the 61st minute.
Anderson made amends by pulling a goal back in the 66th, but Dundee responded with three more goals through Johnny Russell, Jon Daly, and Milos Lacny.
Dundee moves into the top half of the table on 30 points where it sits five points behind St. Johnstone.
Kilmarnock 1, Hearts 1
Kilmarnock, Scotland - Hearts earned a dramatic point on the road, grabbing a 90th minute goal as it played to a 1-1 draw with Kilmarnock at Rugby Park on Saturday.
Paul Heffernan thought he handed Killie the win with a 79th-minute goal, but it was canceled out late on by Suso Santana as the Spanish winger helped Hearts earn a share of the points.
Hearts improve to 36 points in fourth place, while Killie remains in eighth place after drawing its second straight match.
Hibernian 0, Aberdeen 0
Edinburgh, Scotland - Hibernian was held scoreless at home as it played to a 0-0 draw with Aberdeen at Easter Road on Saturday.
Hibs, sitting second from bottom, have managed just one point from it last three Scottish league games.
Aberdeen has fared much better as it extended its unbeaten streak to five games.
St. Mirren 0, Motherwell 0
Paisley, Scotland - St. Mirren and Motherwell played to a 0-0 draw in a stalemate at St. Mirren Park on Saturday.
With its second-straight draw, St. Mirren improves to 28 points on the season, good enough for ninth place in the Scottish Premier League.
Motherwell, unbeaten in its last four, sits third in the league on 42 points.
<< Spain eliminates Kazakhstan in Davis Cup
Oviedo, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Spain has again advanced to the Davis Cup
quarterfinals after the doubles team of Marcel Granollers and Marc Lopez
posted a straight-set victory over the Kazakhstan duo of Evgeny Korolev and
Yuriy S
<< Flames' Blair Jones out indefinitely
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Calgary Flames center Blair Jones is out
indefinitely after suffering a fractured ankle.
Jones suffered the injury while blocking a shot during Thursday's game against
the Phoenix Coyotes.
In 13 games
<< Paul has quickly turned Clippers into a contender
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I haven't seen any signs of the meek
inheriting the earth just yet unless Matthew was talking about the Los Angeles
Clippers.
The NBA's resident doormat has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in
almo
<< Canucks roll into Calgary
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Canucks have been piling up the points lately and
Vancouver will try to keep that trend going tonight, when it visits the
Calgary Flames for a Northwest Division clash at the Saddledome.
The Canucks, who lead the divis
Sweden stays alive with doubles win over Serbia >>
Nis, Serbia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sweden stayed alive in its first-round Davis
Cup tie with Serbia after the doubles team of Johan Brunstrom and Robert
Lindstedt pulled out a five-set victory over Janko Tipsarevic and Nenad
Zimonji
Russia beats back Austria to stay alive in Davis Cup >>
Wiener Neustadt, Austria (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Russia remained alive in the Davis
Cup against Austria on Saturday as the doubles team of Nikolay Davydenko and
Mikhail Youzhny earned a five-set victory over Alexander Peya and Oliver
Marach.
Kerber, Bartoli to meet in Open GDF Suez final >>
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - French crowd favorite Marion Bartoli and
German Angelique Kerber won semifinal matches Saturday at the Open GDF Suez.
The second-seeded Bartoli defeated Klara Zakopalova of the Czech Republic
7-6 (
Rooney bags two to lift United over Liverpool >>
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The intense rivalry in Northwestern
England did disappoint in entertainment value on Saturday as Manchester
United, led by a brace from Wayne Rooney, defeated Liverpool, 2-1, at Old
Traffor
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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